Mudança Climática irá transformar o continente europeu (em Inglês)
2007-01-10
Europe, the richest and most fertile continent and the model for the modern
world, will be devastated by climate change, the European Union predicts
today.
The ecosystems that have underpinned all European societies from Ancient
Greece and Rome to present-day Britain and France, and which helped European
civilisation gain global pre-eminence, will be disabled by remorselessly
rising temperatures, EU scientists forecast in a remarkable report which is
as ominous as it is detailed.
Much of the continent's age-old fertility, which gave the world the vine and
the olive and now produces mountains of grain and dairy products, will not
survive the climate change forecast for the coming century, the scientists
say, and its wildlife will be devastated.
Europe's modern lifestyles, from summer package tours to winter skiing
trips, will go the same way, they say, as the Mediterranean becomes too hot
for holidays and snow and ice disappear from mountain ranges such as the
Alps - with enormous economic consequences. The social consequences will
also be felt as heat-related deaths rise and extreme weather events, such as
storms and floods, become more violent.
The report, stark and uncompromising, marks a step change in Europe's own
role in pushing for international action to combat climate change, as it
will be used in a bid to commit the EU to ambitious new targets for cutting
emissions of greenhouse gases.
The European Commission wants to hold back the rise in global temperatures
to 2C above the pre-industrial level (at present, the level is 0.6C). To do
that, it wants member states to commit to cutting back emissions of carbon
dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, to 30 per cent below 1990 levels by
2020, as long as other developed countries agree to do the same.
Failing that, the EU would observe a unilateral target of a 20 per cent cut.
The Commission president, José Manuel Barroso, gave US President George Bush
a preview of the new policy during a visit to the White House this week.
The force of today's report lies in its setting out of the scale of the
continent-wide threat to Europe's "ecosystem services".
That is a relatively new but powerful concept, which recognises essential
elements of civilised life - such as food, water, wood and fuel - which may
generally be taken for granted, are all ultimately dependent on the proper
functioning of ecosystems in the natural world. Historians have recognised
that Europe was particularly lucky in this respect from the start, compared
to Africa or pre-Columbian America - and this was a major reason for
Europe's rise to global pre-eminence.
"Climate change will alter the supply of European ecosystem services over
the next century," the report says. "While it will result in enhancement of
some ecosystem services, a large portion will be adversely impacted because
of drought, reduced soil fertility, fire, and other climate change-driven
factors.
"Europe can expect a decline in arable land, a decline in Mediterranean
forest areas, a decline in the terrestrial carbon sink and soil fertility,
and an increase in the number of basins with water scarcity. It will
increase the loss of biodiversity."
The report predicts there will be some European "winners" from climate
change, at least initially. In the north of the continent, agricultural
yields will increase with a lengthened growing season and a longer
frost-free period. Tourism may become more popular on the beaches of the
North Sea and the Baltic as the Mediterranean becomes too hot, and deaths
and diseases related to winter cold will fall.
But the negative effects will far outweigh the advantages. Take tourism. The
report says "the zone with excellent weather conditions, currently located
around the Mediterranean (in particular for beach tourism) will shift
towards the north". And it spells out the consequences.
"The annual migration of northern Europeans to the countries of the
Mediterranean in search of the traditional summer 'sun, sand and sea'
holiday is the single largest flow of tourists across the globe, accounting
for one-sixth of all tourist trips in 2000. This large group of tourists,
totalling about 100 million per annum, spends an estimated €100bn (£67bn)
per year. Any climate-induced change in these flows of tourists and money
would have very large implications for the destinations involved."
While they are losing their tourists, the countries of the Med may also be
losing their agriculture. Crop yields may drop sharply as drought
conditions, exacerbated by more frequent forest fires, make farming ever
more difficult. And that is not the only threat to Europe's food supplies.
Some stocks of coldwater fish in areas such as the North Sea will move
northwards as the water warms.
There are many more direct threats, the report says. The cost of taking
action to cope with sea-level rise will run into billions of euros.
Furthermore, "for the coming decades, it is predicted the magnitude and
frequency of extreme weather events will increase, and floods will likely be
more frequent and severe in many areas across Europe."
The number of people affected by severe flooding in the Upper Danube area is
projected to increase by 242,000 in a more extreme 3C temperature rise
scenario, and by 135,000 in the case of a 2.2C rise. The total cost of
damage would rise from €47.5bn to €66bn in the event of a 3C increase.
Although fewer people would die of cold in the north, that would be more
than offset by increased mortality in the south. Under the more extreme
scenario of a 3C increase in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990, there would be
86,000 additional deaths.
(By Michael McCarthy and Stephen Castle, The Independent, 10/01/2007)
http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article2140265.ece