Nuclear power's share of global power supply is likely to shrink over
the next few decades as political indecision and public opposition stunt
its growth. Even optimists do not see a big expansion in nuclear power's
share of electricity production over the next few decades, despite
governments warming to it as fears over climate change and security of
energy supply intensify.
"In relative shares, in most projections out to 2030 nuclear power is
going to decline," Hans-Holger Rogner, head of nuclear energy planning
at the International Atomic Energy Agency, told Reuters.
The IAEA expects nuclear power to produce 12-13 percent of global
electricity by 2030, down from the current 16 percent, while the
International Energy Agency forecasts 10-14 percent. But Rogner said
that long construction times, planning obstacles, a lack of trained
nuclear engineers and lingering public fear all hindered the progress of
nuclear energy.
"Even if there is a momentum of rising expectations for nuclear power,
it will take time to propagate to the system," he said. "Many countries,
even nuclear countries, have lost the capability. They don't have the
licensing authorities in place any more, and they have to re-educate
their people."
The IAEA forecasts an increase in nuclear generation capacity of 20-30
percent by 2030, but as overall electricity generation capacity is going
to double in that period -- with most of that met by coal, renewables
and gas-fired plants -- nuclear looks like being left behind.
Beyond 2030 is very hard to predict because it mostly depends on whether
fears over climate change override the fear of nuclear power that still
lingers 20 years after the Chernobyl nuclear disaster.
"One accident could set everything back," Rogner said. "If we have a
little bit more climate catastrophe it may just go the other direction."
If there is a big shift towards nuclear over the next few decades, amid
accelerating climate change and diminishing fossil fuel reserves, the
technology might grow its share of generation, but not until the middle
of the century and beyond.
"Our 2050 projections, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change scenarios and so on... you get into the 20 to 25 percent range of
nuclear generated electricity," Rogner said.
Climate change
The global response to climate change, together with soaring oil and gas
prices, has helped bring nuclear power out from the shadow cast by
Chernobyl.
But growing political discussion in the developed world about the
benefits of the technology has yet to result in large scale nuclear
build, while Europe's ageing, state-built reactors hobble towards
retirement.
"Is it just lip service that our politicians pay or do they really mean
it?" Rogner said. "That will make a difference over the next 20 to 30
years."
Because of the huge costs involved in building new nuclear plants and
disposing of the waste, private companies demand investment security
from governments, particularly a long-term, global cost on carbon
emissions. There is no sign of that yet.
Even where there is a cost for carbon, potential investors in new
European reactors are reluctant to commit to new build because Europe's
CO2 trading scheme currently ends in 2012.
"It's hard to see private industry investing in nuclear power stations
without guarantees from government, not only for carbon but also for...
waste disposal and decommissioning," Andrew Nind of Poyry Energy
Consulting said.
Nind said that increasingly liberalised markets of Europe discourage new
nuclear build, but that growing environmental concerns might force
governments to assume enough of the risks involved to encourage private
industry to build it.
"A lot will depend on the weather and the political will to do something
about global warming," he said.
Growth areas
As it stands, Asia will probably see the biggest nuclear energy growth
over the next few decades, observers say.
The IAEA says 16 of the 29 reactors being built are in developing
countries. Most of those are in Asia, with India leading the pack with
seven new reactors and China just behind.
Meanwhile, 20 years after Chernobyl, public distrust of nuclear power
lingers in Europe and its role in generation there is likely to shrivel
as political indecision and public opposition persist.
(Por Daniel Fineren,
Planet Ark, 09/01/2007)