The surprisingly mild 2006 Atlantic hurricane season ended with a whimper on Thursday and forecasters said it was too early to know if El Nino will last long enough to flatten next year s hurricanes too. The unexpected formation of the Pacific warm-water phenomenon that hampers storm formation in the Atlantic turned what was expected to be another above-average season into a pussycat.

The official six-month season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, produced only nine tropical storms and hurricanes, below the average of 10 and dramatically fewer than the 16 or 17 some researchers had predicted back in May. "We caught a break this year," said Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

But like many weather researchers, Bell is still waving the hurricane warning flag. "We re still in an active hurricane era. These periods last 25 to 40 years and we re 12 years into one. We ve got a long ways to go." The mild 2006 season provided welcome relief for millions of people in the Caribbean and along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts who endured two blockbuster years in 2004 and 2005.

Last year produced a record 28 storms including Hurricane Katrina, which killed some 1,500 people on the Gulf Coast and caused $80 billion in damage. The year before saw 15 storms. Four strong hurricanes struck Florida, sending property insurance rates skyrocketing. Of the nine Atlantic storms this year, five reached hurricane strength and only two, Gordon and Helene, were "major" hurricanes with winds of 111 mph (178 kph) or more.

For the first time since 1997, there were no Category 4 or 5 hurricanes, the most destructive types with winds above 130 mph (209 kph). No hurricanes crossed the US coast, which weathered direct hits from tropical storms Alberto and Ernesto and a brush with Beryl. Ernesto battered Cuba and Haiti as a hurricane. Hurricane Gordon passed through Portugal s Azores Islands and Hurricane Florence raked Bermuda.

El Niño may not last
A typical El Nino -- a warming of eastern Pacific waters which interferes with hurricane activity in the Atlantic by increasing disruptive wind shear -- will last nine to 12 months, Bell said. "El Nino was the main player in the 2006 season. But El Nino forecasts are only good out to about three to six months," he said. "El Nino will remain strong through the winter and into the early spring. Typically it will weaken quite a bit as you get into the late spring and into summer."

Some El Nino events last longer, Bell said. The one that developed in 1991 lasted until 1994. An El Nino can trigger drought across Indonesia and northern Australia, heavy rainfall in central South America, coastal Ecuador and other areas, stormy conditions across the US south and warmer winter temperatures in the US north.

Despite the mild 2006 season, Bell said the core conditions for busy Atlantic hurricane seasons -- warm ocean water, low wind shear and favorable winds from the African coast -- remain in place. "People can expect ongoing high levels of hurricane activity," he said.
(Por Jim Loney, Planet Ark, 01/12/2006)