Every 17 seconds, a small armada of ships trawling 130 miles from the
Louisiana coast fire powerful air guns toward the bottom of the sea in a
hunt for the next big oil discovery.
“Flyers” also collect data from the ocean floor. Some estimates say 40
billion barrels of undiscovered reserves could be in the deep Gulf. The
Neptune and three other ships are on a three-month mission to map one of
the most remote regions of the United States. The data they collect from
the vibrations set off by the guns in the gulf’s deepest waters will
help engineers form a picture of some of the world s newest petroleum
prospects.
As oil consumption grows and access to most oil-rich regions becomes
increasingly restricted, companies are venturing farther out to sea,
drilling deeper than ever in their quest for energy. The next oil
frontier — and the next great challenge for oil explorers — lies below
10,000 feet of water, through five miles of hard rock, thick salt and
tightly packed sands.
“It s not a place for the timid,” said Paul K. Siegele, the vice
president for deepwater exploration at Chevron, which commissioned a
survey by the Neptune. “It s a place where a lot of people have lost
their shirts.”
To picture the challenge, imagine flying above New York City at 30,000
feet and aiming a drill tip the size of a coffee can at the pitcher’s
mound in Yankee Stadium. Then imagine doing it in the dark, at $100
million a go.
Even after hitting pay dirt, it will take another decade and billions of
dollars to transform oil from these ultra-deep reserves into gasoline.
Some of the technology to pump the sludge from these depths, at these
pressures and temperatures, has not yet been developed; only about a
dozen ships can drill wells that deep, and no one knows for sure how
much oil is down there.
While most people regard affordable and abundant supplies as an
essential element of the nation s prosperity, few realize how complex
and costly the quest has become, even in the nation s own backyard. At
the same time, some experts argue that the industry is nearing the
limits of what it can do to maintain a growing supply of fossil fuels.
But for the geologists, scientists and explorers who work here in the
Gulf of Mexico, the history of the deep water holds another lesson:
technological breakthroughs have always breathed new life into the
energy industry.
“This is as close as we get to the space age on earth,” said Kenny Lang,
BP’s vice president for gulf production.
Thanks to advances in offshore technology, and tremendous leaps in
supercomputers and three-dimensional imaging, this region’s deepest
waters have become the hottest exploration prospects in the nation.
Barely more than a decade ago, the area was called the Dead Sea and was
nearly abandoned as the major energy companies left for better prospects
in Russia and the Caspian Sea basin.
In fact, the region s output would have peaked and started slipping long
ago without the leaps that have driven the search for offshore oil and
natural gas. While production from the Gulf’s shallow waters is
declining, deepwater production is on an upswing. Altogether, the Gulf
of Mexico accounts for more than 25 percent of the nation’s oil
production and 20 percent of its natural gas output.
According to the most optimistic estimates, there could be 40 billion
barrels of undiscovered reserves in the deep water, which starts at
about 1,500 feet, enough to satisfy American consumption for more than
five years.
These reserves might lift the offshore output to 2.2 million barrels a
day by 2012, up from 1.5 million barrels today.
Still, that s a drop in the bucket. Even as the deepwater resources are
developed, the nation is expected to continue to import more than
two-thirds of the 20 million barrels of oil it consumes each day.
Since 2001, there have been 12 discoveries in waters 5,000 feet deep,
drilling into older rock formations known as the Lower Tertiary. Those
point to the presence of a region that might hold as much as 15 billion
barrels of reserves.
The latest and largest find in the Lower Tertiary, about 250 miles south
of New Orleans, was announced in August by BP. The find is a layer of
800 feet of oil-bearing sands, more than five miles under the ocean
floor.
“The deep water in the Gulf of Mexico is a textbook application of where
technology drove opportunity,” said Barney Issen, a geologist with
Chevron. “It’s been known for quite some time that there were huge
resources out there but we didn t have the seismic data to have the
nerve to drill. And even if we did, we didn’t have the drilling tools
until recently.”
Last month, Royal Dutch Shell announced that it would develop three
ultradeep discoveries 200 miles south of the Texas coastline. The
project, called Perdido, will tie together fields called Great White,
Tobago and Silvertip, and is projected to have a daily capacity of the
equivalent of 130,000 barrels of oil by the turn of the decade.
Drilling Down and Out Some of the earlier doubts about production in the
Lower Tertiary were recently lifted when Chevron successfully tested its
Jack field. The test proved that oil could flow in commercial quantities
from sediments deposited as long as 65 million years ago. “The geology
has been proven, the oil is present,” said Renato Bertani, the chief
executive of the American unit of Petrobras, Brazil s national oil
company. His company plans to produce from Lower Tertiary discoveries in
2009.
“The result really encouraged us tremendously,” he said. “There is
nevertheless some level of uncertainty.”
Part of the problem for deep exploration in the Gulf of Mexico is a
thick layer of salt — 15,000 feet deep in some places — that extends
unevenly under the Gulf’s waters. The salt acts like frosted glass when
geologists try to see through it, blurring their view of untapped oil
reserves thought to lie below.
A clear image of the subsea salt can make the difference between a
successful discovery and a dry well.
“This is an industry that has to manage risk,” said Rocco Detomo Jr., a
senior geophysicist at Shell. “And it’s much too risky and too expensive
to look for oil the old-fashioned way.” At BP s sprawling campus in a
Houston suburb, geologists take many years looking for oil before
drilling a single well. They are counting on huge leaps in processing
power from computer networks that allow scientists to make sense of the
complex seismic data acquired by ships like the Neptune.
The more sophisticated data is necessary because drilling costs have
soared in recent years and can now reach as much as $800,000 a day, or
up to $100 million for a single well. Those costs raise the risks when,
on average, only one in every three to five wells turns up oil. Chevron,
for example, expects to spend $3.5 billion on its Tahiti project, which
should start production in 2008. BP invests more than $2 billion a year
in the Gulf and devotes 40 percent of its global exploration budget
here.
“When you re living in that place where you re constantly on the edge,
occasionally you re going to stub your toe,” Mr. Lang of BP said. That
recently happened at BP’s Thunder Horse, the world’s largest offshore
platform, with a planned oil capacity of 250,000 barrels a day. The
platform, dwarfing anything else in the Gulf, was supposed to start
production last year, but ran into problems, including being left
listing after Hurricane Dennis passed in 2005. The latest mishap
involves replacing critical pieces of equipment at the bottom of the
ocean, a lengthy process that will delay production until 2008.
Thunder Horse has been more than a decade in the making, according to
Cindy A. Yeilding, the company s chief geologist in Houston. Back in the
early 1990s, Ms. Yeilding and other BP scientists used better
technology, including the new three-dimensional seismic mapping, and
more powerful computers to focus on big fields, which are referred to as
“elephants” in the industry.
“We went on an elephant hunt,” she said. “To test a new play, we needed
to find a huge accumulation of hydrocarbons and we needed a rig that
could drill in 5,000 or 6,000 feet of water. It was a combination of
geology and technology.”
From 1992 to 1997, the company acquired dozens of new leases from the
government, spurred by a new royalty relief program that provided extra
incentives to encourage deepwater exploration.
On the first day of 1999, the company finally began drilling a well in
the Mississippi Canyon s Block 778, a lease in the northeast region of
the Gulf, about 125 miles from New Orleans. The drilling team, led by
Ms. Yeilding, was confident it had found the giant field it was looking
for but was nervous at the prospect of drilling through salt in deep
waters.
“We were petrified,” Ms. Yeilding recalled. “We were so afraid of salt,
we wanted to go around it.”
But the efforts paid off. On July 4 that year, the BP well reached its
final depth of 29,000 feet, after having gone through 6,000 feet of
water and 2,500 feet of salt. There, BP made the biggest discovery in
the Gulf of Mexico. The field, holding one billion barrels of reserves,
became known as Thunder Horse.
The wider hunt has been on ever since. On the Neptune s deck, the
repetitive beat of the air guns can barely be heard. But below the sea,
the vibrations travel deep inside the earth s crust. Then they bounce
back and are picked up by streamers of densely packed electronic
sensors, stretching four miles behind the ship.
Inside, working in cool temperature-controlled rooms, dozens of
engineers control the ship s position, collect the seismic data and
begin forming a picture of the earth s geological layers.
“The easy oil is running out because it has already been found,” said
Ezio Plenizio, an Italian geophysicist aboard the Neptune, which belongs
to the oil services company Schlumberger. “But 20 years ago, when I
started in the business, people were already saying that oil is going to
run out soon.”
(Por Jad Mouawad,
The N.Y. Times, 09/11/2006)