All wild seafood will have disappeared from the world`s menus within 50 years if current trends in overfishing continue according to one of the most comprehensive studies of marine life. The apocalyptic warning is issued by a team of ecologists and economists from a dozen research centres who have studied detailed records on fish catches going back to 1950.

Their comprehensive study, published today by the journal Science, found the number of commercial fisheries that have collapsed was accelerating and that the total eradication of all fish stocks in the world is due to be completed by 2048. "Unless we fundamentally change the way we manage all the oceans species together, as working ecosystems, then this century is the last century of wild seafood," said Steve Palumbi of Stanford University, one of the study`s authors.

The four-year research project is the first to analyse all the existing data that has been gathered on marine fish and other ocean species as well as the ecosystems in which they live. The researchers found 29 per cent of the world`s fisheries had collapsed and the most vulnerable habitats were those where overfishing had already led to the extinction of some species, said Boris Worm of Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia.

"Species have been disappearing from ocean ecosystems and this trend has recently been accelerating," Professor Worm said. "Now we begin to see some of the consequences. For example, if the long-term trend continues, all fish and seafood species are projected to collapse within my lifetime - by 2048," he said. "At this point, 29 per cent of fish and seafood species have collapsed, that is their catch has declined by 90 per cent. It is a very clear trend and it is accelerating," Professor Worm said. "We don`t have to use [computer] models to understand this trend. It is based on all the available data," he added.

The study investigated the historical records of 64 large marine regions, accounting for more than 80 per cent of global seafood production. Biodiversity - the richness of marine life - emerged as the single most important factor in the overall survival of an ecosystem. "We found again and again, to an extent that was almost eerie, that no matter where we looked, biodiversity was at the heart of the issue," Professor Worm said. "Whether we looked at tide pools or studies over the entire world`s oceans, in losing species we lose the productivity and stability of entire ecosystems. "I was shocked and disturbed by how consistent these trends are - beyond anything we suspected."

The loss of fish was just one aspect of the decline in the marine health. The study found that the seas were becoming more prone to outbreaks of algal growths, as well as other diseases, and less resistant to the effects of climate change and pollution. "The ocean is a great recycler. It takes sewage and recycles it into nutrients, it scrubs toxins out of the water, and it produces food and turns carbon dioxide into food and oxygen," Professor Palumbi said.

Many millions of people rely in the oceans not just for seafood but for other goods and services such as flood control and waste detoxification yet this vast economic benefit is under threat. "This isn`t predicted to happen, this is happening now. If biodiversity continues to decline, the marine environment will not be able to sustain our way of life, indeed it may not be able to sustain our lives at all," said Nicola Beaumont, an ecological economist from Plymouth Marine Laboratory, who also took part in the study. The scientists emphasised there is time to turn things around.

Professor Worm said for instance it is still possible for people to eat wild seafood providing it is caught from sustainable fisheries by sustainable methods. He also called for the establishment of an international approach to protecting the oceans along the lines of the coastal waters of north-west America and Canada which are one of the best-preserved fisheries in the world.
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
(The Independent, 03/11/2006)
http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article1951279.ece http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/38799/story.htm