2004: Um ano de viver perigosamente (em inglês) This year has seen a succession of ferocious natural disasters, destroying cities and killing tens of thousands of people. Michael McCarthy reports on a trend that is terrifying the insurance industry The deadly sea surges that swept across southern Asia yesterday, destroying whole communities across at least eight countries, were triggered by the strongest earthquake the world has witnessed for 40 years. The quake which swelled under the sea near Aceh in north Indonesia created a wall of water that sped across thousands of miles to leave whole towns in tatters and a ghastly death toll.

But the latest freak disaster features among a number of ferocious natural disasters that the world has seen this year. It was exactly a year ago, on Boxing Day last year, that the ancient city of Bam in Iran was destroyed by a powerful earthquake that killed more than 43,000 people, injured 20,000 and left 60,000 destitute. And 2004 has been the year of the hundred billion dollar damage bill - when the weather broke all records. Across the planet, the violence of the world s wind and rain caused unprecedented economic damage, new figures reveal - adding to fears that the disastrous consequences of climate change are beginning to take effect.

Losses caused by natural disasters, most of them climate-related and headed by hurricanes in America and typhoons in Japan, leapt for the first time to more than $100bn (£52bn), according to preliminary estimates from the Zurich-based reinsurance giant Swiss Re. The remarkable sum will intensify the global warming debate, as more extreme weather events, including tropical storms of greater intensity, are among the predicted consequences of climate change. The astonishing storms of the past year are consistent with this, although scientists say it is not yet possible to link them to global warming directly.

However, leading environmentalists said they should be very much taken as a warning. Here again are yet more events in the real world that are consistent with climate change predictions based on the most up-to-date scientific models, said Tony Juniper, the director of Friends of the Earth. Only last year, the members of the United Nations Environment Programmes finance initiative were estimating that insured losses due to natural disasters would soon approach $150bn per decade. ? These figures say we are well on the way to reaching that in just one year. The insurance industry must now add its voice to those calling for urgent action to limit the danger posed by rapid climate change.

Stephen Tindale, the executive director of Greenpeace UK, said: ? No one can ignore the relentless increase in extreme weather events and so-called natural disasters, which in reality are no more natural than a plastic Christmas tree. The World Health Organisation tells us that already 150,000 people die each year as a result of climate change. Sadly that has not been enough to make world leaders sit up and take notice, but maybe this $100bn bill will. And since it comes with a dollar sign attached, it is the type of language even George Bush might understand. Swiss Re, the company whose London headquarters is Norman Foster s famous Gherkin building, is a specialist in reinsurance: it insures smaller insurers against large-scale disasters.

Its records of disasters since 1970, shown in the graph, indicate that the rate of natural catastrophes has taken a step change upwards in the 1990s, which is also the decade when rising global temperatures have become clearly apparent. The 10 hottest years in the global temperature record have all now occurred since 1990. ? The rise in losses is steadily upwards, said Henner Alms, an executive with Swiss Re. But the company was cautious about attributing this directly to man-made climate change, he said. The company estimates that total economic losses for 2004 from natural and man-made catastrophes totalled $105bn - the vast majority of them caused by weather, and the first time that the $100bn figure has been exceeded in a year. It calculates that property insurers worldwide will bear $42bn of the total losses, making 2004 - ahead of 1992, 2001 and 1999 - the record year also in terms of insurance claims.

By way of comparison, in 1992, losses adjusted for inflation were in the region of $38bn (after the spectacularly damaging Hurricane Andrew); in 2001 they reached $37bn (including the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks); and in 1999, they totalled $36bn (including the Lothar and Martin winter storms). About 95 per cent of claims in 2004 were attributable to natural catastrophes, Swiss Re says. The largest occurred in America and Japan, after storms of terrifying intensity hit both countries in the second half of the year. Four fierce hurricanes hit the Florida coast in quick succession, while the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico were affected by similar natural disasters. All four caused losses of billions of dollars. Hurricane Charley, which affected Florida, wrought economic damage of $16bn, says Swiss Re, including insurance claims of $7bn. The figures for the other hurricanes were: Frances $10bn and $5bn, respectively; Jeanne $8bn and $4bn; and Ivan $22bn and $11bn.

Meanwhile, violent weather plagued Japan, including Typhoon Songda, which caused total economic losses of $6.2bn, including property claims of $2.5bn. The figures for Typhoon Tokage, again in Japan, were $1.4bn and $800m respectively; and for Typhoon Chaba, $1.8bn and $700m. ? What these figures do not reveal, however, is the disproportionate impact of climate change on poor people who cannot even afford insurance and who are least responsible for causing the problem in the first place, said the Friends of the Earth director. ? Uninsured losses are vast and increasing too, and must be fully reported in order that we understand the real costs of our wasteful habits and addiction to fossil fuels. Swiss Re s assessment does in fact reveal that, as so often in the past, it was developing countries that suffered the highest number of fatalities this year. Almost half of the 21,000 victims of catastrophes recorded by Swiss Re in 2004 were in Asia or Africa: thousands perished in the flooding in the Philippines, which began in mid-November and did not abate until the beginning of this month, and earlier in March, more than 360 people were killed by Cyclone Gafilo in Madagascar.

Britain is believed to be relatively safe from highly destructive storms, despite the exceptional flooding experienced by the villagers of Boscastle in Cornwall this summer. However, some scientists believe that if the volcano on La Palma in the Canary Islands explodes, a 500-metre-high mega-tsunami could engulf low-lying parts of Britain, but this is unlikely to happen for at least the next few thousand years. North-west Wales is one of the most seismically active places in Britain. In 1984, a quake registered 5.4 on the Richter scale, which was relatively exceptional for this country.* Estimated figures for weather-related insurance losses in Britain this year are not yet available, says the Association of British Insurers.(The Independent 29/12)