The apportionment of water is fast becoming a contentious issue between India and Pakistan. Twice in the recent past, Pakistan has had the unfortunate experience of a dip in the Chenab water flow because of the water controlling ability of Baglihar Hydropower Project inaugurated by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Friday last. Coming as it did in the sowing season, this arbitrary action hit Pakistan where it hurt most. The Indian Prime Minister, in his speech at the inauguration of the Baglihar project, had held out the assurance that Pakistan’s concerns about the design of the project had been duly addressed. The dip in the water supply to Pakistan in the Chenab River would appear to belie this claim.

It will be recalled that Pakistan and India have been engaged of lately in talks meant to tackle the differences over the water and hydroelectric power projects that come under the aegis of the Indus Basin Waters Treaty of 1960. The Pakistan Indus Basin Water Commissioner and his Indian counterpart engage in this periodic activity to sort out the differences and mutual reservations about the designs of the projects covered by the Treaty. The Pakistan Indus Basin Water Commissioner, in his Press briefing in June last, had disclosed that India had assured Pakistan that the Baglihar Dam was now being erected in line with the recommendations of the “neutral expert” appointed by the World Bank in terms of the Indus Basin Waters treaty. India had offered the inspection of the Baglihar project by Pakistani experts. Pakistan had invoked the relevant provision of the Indus Basin Waters Treaty because of serious reservations about the design of the Baglihar project.

India and Pakistan had signed the Indus Basin Treaty in 1960, under which the contentious issue of distribution of waters in the Indus Basin between the two countries had been settled, hopefully once for all. Since then, annual meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission have been providing the opportunity to discuss the reservations of either side as regards the design and technical details of the projects proposed by the other side. The Indus Basin Treaty is a comprehensive document that covers all aspects of the technical designs of the proposed projects, as well as ways and means to settle differences of opinion and/or reservations on controversial projects.

It may be mentioned that, during the last session of the Commission, the Pakistan side had also presented Pakistan’s technical reservations in respect of the Kishanganga Project on the Jhelum River. Pakistan raised six objections out of which four were discussed in some detail. The Pakistan Indus Commissioner briefed the media relating to Pakistan’s reservations in regard to the Indian technical design of the project that related to the ‘free board’ issue; the storage capacity; the diversion of the river and to de-silting. Pakistan had also expressed reservations on the Indian formula for water storage the calculation for which - it felt - was “faulty”. It feared that, if erected according to the Indian design, the Krishan Ganga Dam “ may not be safe”. The views of the two sides were totally opposed to each other and Pakistan proposed the establishment of a timeframe to resolve the issue. The Indian side agreed that a fresh round of talks would be held in India in the third week of July 2008.

Should the Commission fail to resolve the issue in the July 2008 talks then the issue would have to be taken up at governmental level. The Indus Basin Treaty provides for various mechanisms to settle the differences between the two parties, including resort to arbitration by a neutral expert as was done in the case of the Baglihar Dam Project. That said, it must be pointed out that, despite the provisions of the Indus Basin Waters Treaty, India appears to be going ahead with one project after another despite the reservations expressed by Pakistan. It is a great pity that despite the intervention of the ‘neutral expert’ appointed by the World Bank, India appears to be getting away with reducing the water supply in the Chenab to the detriment of Pakistan, after the completion of the Baglihar project. It appears evident that India is trying to gnaw at the Indus Basin Treaty bit by bit to reduce its effectiveness. This most regrettable attitude appears to be in line with India’s general disregard of its International Treaty obligations. It does not all augur well for the future normalization of relations between the two countries. The equitable apportionment of waters that was envisaged in the Indus Basin Waters Treaty should not be altered since it affects the very existence of the people. This is a matter of life and death. Matters could hardly be more serious. Pakistan, as the lower riparian, is the worse affected and should have the sympathy and support of the international community. It is too serious a matter to be left at the mercy of the Indus Basin Waters Commissioner alone.

The differences on the apportionment of water should bring to the fore the urgency of addressing the Jammu and Kashmir issue by the two countries. This and several other issues are inextricably liked with the Jammu and Kashmir dispute. Unless this issue is settled betimes in an equitable and lasting fashion, the matter of normalization of relations between India and Pakistan would remain a pipe dream. No number of the much-vaunted CBMs nor such gimmicks as people to people contact and the like are going to change the basic realities of the flawed relationship. What is needed is the political will to tackle the contentious issues that stand in the way of normalization. There is no other way.

(Por Khalid Saleem, Pakobserver, 20/10/2008)